Strategic Outlook 2027: Europe in an Age of Contested Interdependence
Risks, choices and scenarios for European policy in the year ahead.
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Risks, choices and scenarios for European policy in the year ahead.
Read the report →European Organisation for Strategic Policy delivers timely briefings, early signals and expert analysis on the developments shaping Europe, the Middle East and the wider international system.
This paper proposes that Europe treat accurate decisions on Arabic content as part of its counterterrorism capacity, and use artificial intelligence to assist triage and analysis under clear human responsibility. The priority is to enforce the law against specifically identified terrorist content while protecting legitimate journalism, research, religious expression and political speech. It recommends independent tests of context and dialects, prompt correction of erroneous removal, and reporting that captures both wrongful removal and wrongful retention. The appearance of AI-generated propaganda is not evidence of an independent effect on recruitment or attacks. Establishing such an effect requires causal evidence that this desk review does not provide.
European–Gulf Economic Partnership between Bilateral Agreements and Regional IntegrationOctober 4, 2026 · Europe›
European–Gulf Defence Industrial PartnershipOctober 4, 2026 · Europe›
Policy PaperFinancing Syria’s Recovery Europe’s Options to Reduce Risk and Support StabilityThis paper favours multilateral grants and tightly defined electricity projects as the first stage of European support, followed by partial guarantees only when operating viability, contracting integrity and equitable service access can be demonstrated. Europe’s legal reopening creates room to act; it does not itself resolve weak data, diversion risks or unequal access between communities. Funding should support a functioning network and a verifiable service, while humanitarian assistance continues to follow need. The paper proposes decision gates separating legal clearance, technical readiness and financial expansion, backed by independent oversight, the ability to halt a compromised contract and arrangements to protect essential services. This is an analytical proposal, not a quantified forecast of investment returns or political stability.▣ Oct 4, 2026 Read more →
Policy PaperEuropean Defence Readiness 2030: From Spending Pledges to Deployable CapabilityEurope’s defence challenge is now principally one of conversion: turning resources and political urgency into usable, sustained capability.▣ Aug 26, 2026 Read more →
Policy PaperOpen Strategic Autonomy: Reducing Critical Dependencies Without Closing EuropeEuropean economic security should protect a limited set of essential functions with exceptional seriousness while preserving openness, competition and trusted international exchange everywhere else.▣ Aug 26, 2026 Read more →Access European Organisation for Strategic Policy’s authoritative collection of policy papers, reports, briefs and analytical series — rigorous research and forward-looking insights on global challenges.
Europe enters 2027 with more instruments than before, but with limited tolerance for fragmented delivery.
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